So with the sale ended Friday and this being memorial weekend several people asked me to review the auction and look at some of the statistics behind the sale.
Lots of fascinating results to be had with a little analysis of the final tally’s.
First up the auction has 565 lots sold. Only two lots were pulled beforehand.
There were over 3000 bidders if bidder number assigned to the auction are to be believed. Compared to a typical premiere-props Friday auction that may have less than 100.
On an average the cheapest items to sell were the mokap FX weapons. The most expensive was Llanes suit of armor, sword and Lothars sword and armor.
For the first time in my long history of bidding the first 30 lots were on the whole vastly cheaper than those later on in the sale. Typically stuff at the beginning is amongst the most expensive but then dips in the middle and climbs at the end as panic bidding sets in. What may have changed this result in the same is one or two bidders (more on that later)
A statistically important fact came to bear in this sale. If a potential buyer of the armors I this sale lost they were statistically more likely to bid and win the very next suit of armor. This was about a 1/3 possibility.
Another statistic was if an item had been bid up over the average during the week before the sale these items invariably had the most interest and created the biggest prices at the auctions end. This is presumably as people had more time to plan and “fall in love” with the idea of owning it. It is also a bidding tactic used and cultivated by some buyers you can “scare away” the competition. This rarely works in my opinion.
The cheapest knight was $6500 (female with 3D shield) and the most expensive was the poleaxe knight for $18,000. An $11,500 difference. The cheapest poleaxes by themselves were $1800 and $3250. Or you could have bought one poleaxe, plus halberd, shield and five swords for $3750 or $4500. I already know dear reader what your thinking.
The cheapest soldier was lot 16 a battle-damage version with spear at $4000 followed closely by lot 12 which had all three weapons (sword/shield/cannon) and no damage for $4250. If you price those props out of it at average the buyer basically got the armor for free compared to other later buys. The most expensive soldier (lot 459) also had a spear and sold for $16,000. Without doing the math the average soldier price was $7000. Not good when I figured it would be $4000 few days before. None of these figures include buyers premium at 23% or tax in California or shipping.
Now let’s look at those high priced premium items spread thru out the auction.
First up lot 553 Lothars armor. Selling price was $41,000 (bidder 59) and was a mixture of partial and stunt. It also came with the less desirable foam sword. The hero sword went to bidder 126 for 21,000 with a sheath. The stunt Lothar sold for $6000 (bidder 1605) even though it had almost the same amount of content as the hero but like all early items in the same the placement seemed to have a result in the price as did the fact it was a stunt.
Secondly let’s take a look at Llanes hero sword hitting an otherworldly $51,000. These items that sold high pretty much were because two bidders got into a fight and didn’t back down. In nearly every case nobody else got involved in the scuffle if the prices were over $8,000-10,000 on these main pieces.
In this case bidder 126 won the metal hero. Remember that number.
Now onto those gold/silver Llane shields. Earlier in the day they sat around $1500. The first 552 closed at $31,000. Hi bidder 126 and lower 1032. The second of the identical pieces lot 555 sold for $25,000 to 1032 and lower bidder was 126. This is a result of both pieces over lapping each other and when the most expensive one locked at $31k the second guy got a $6,000 lower priced shield.
Does this explain the best deal of the auction. Not really.
That was early on (like all the good deals like half the world was asleep) in the form of King Llanes mostly complete armor and shield which sold for $4750 to bidder 3268. Yes including the type of shield that sold for over 25k later in the sale. I knew this was a good deal since the gold shield was at $1700 then but little did I realize what it would do later as we discussed earlier.
The hero Llane costume sold for $60,000 and was bid on by bidder 1032 and bidder 59 in a battle of wills. The interesting thing is the final bids for both were $60,000. Since this happened the final bid matched each other but could have been broken by a single $1.00.
But let’s go back to auction bidder 126 and his final tally. Responsible for the following items final prices:
22 guard aluminum sword $6000
104 book $6000
126 hero Llane sword $51,000
247 garonas dagger $5500
261 large alliance shield $5,500
348 poleaxe knight $18,000
446 alliance metal sword $4750
459 foot soldier all weapons $16,000
552 hero Llane shield $31,000
564 Lothar hero sword $21,000
And bidder 1032
566 hero Llane w/shield $60,000
555 Llane shield 25,000
141 knight with pole 15,000
212 soldier no weapon 5500
380 soldier all weapons 11,000
453 foot soldier no weapon 5500
465 foot soldier no weapon 7000
484 foot soldier no weapon 6500
561 foot soldier with weapons 10,000
When combined before fees spent without even adding every single smaller item they bought $164,000 and $145,000 worth of items.
So I know what your asking. What does this mean. Well when Peter Jackson shows off one of the above items you know what else he bought.
It also shows two people can vastly change an auction landscape. I know almost no collectors who won anything apart from shields and one soldier.
Were the winners China gold mafia? Blizzard? Peter Jackson? Michael Jackson?
More news as we find out I guess.